Kathmandu: As the first week of the Nepali month of Shrawan (mid-July) comes to a close, rice transplantation in Madhesh Province has barely reached 46.83 percent across its eight districts.
The lack of active monsoon rainfall has significantly hampered rice cultivation not just in Madhesh but also in Koshi Province.
Most farmlands in Madhesh remain barren due to water shortages. Many farmers have not even been able to germinate rice seeds. The failure of the monsoon has been compounded by overexploitation of the Chure region—rampant deforestation and illegal mining of sand and gravel have disrupted the region’s ecological balance, drying up underground water sources.
As a result, deep boring and tube wells—once relied upon for irrigation—are no longer effective. With groundwater levels drastically reduced, locals are also facing severe drinking water shortages. Fields that were irrigated using deep borings have now dried up, with rice saplings withering and soil cracking due to the drought.
Experts warn that if the current trend continues and there is no significant rainfall by the fourth week of Shrawan, rice production could decline by at least 25 percent this year.
Dr Mathura Yadav, rice programme coordinator at Nepal Agricultural Research Council (NARC), warned that the continued dry spell could drastically reduce paddy output, affecting both food security and the economy.
Reduced rice production is likely to fuel a price hike in rice, putting further pressure on Nepal’s already fragile economy.
Former Secretary at the Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock Development, Dr Yubak Dhoj GC, said that although official records show irrigation access in 40–45 percent of rice-growing areas, the actual coverage is closer to 25 percent, and even those areas do not receive year-round irrigation. Without proper investment in irrigation, he stressed, farmers will continue to struggle during dry spells.
Last year, Nepal produced paddy worth over Rs 190 billion, with Madhesh alone accounting for more than Rs 60 billion. The government had fixed the support price for medium-grade rice at Rs 3,580.62 per quintal. Madhesh was the highest contributor, producing 1.48 million metric tons of rice from 374,117 hectares.
The province has 542,580 hectares of arable land, of which 502,224 hectares are under cultivation. Out of this, 362,344 hectares are used for monsoon paddy and 20,839 hectares for spring paddy, according to the Department of Agriculture.
Department Director General Prakash Sanjel stated that rice remains a backbone of the national economy. Any drop in production directly affects GDP. A 10 percent change in rice yield typically causes a 1 percent change in GDP.
Paddy contributes approximately 4 percent to Nepal’s GDP and about 19 percent to the agricultural GDP. Paddy is cultivated on 47.7 percent of Nepal’s total farmland, with over 70 percent of that in the Terai region.
So far this year, only 9,98,228 hectares (84.6 percent) of the total 1,383,732 hectares designated for rice cultivation have been transplanted. In Madhesh, just 174,508 hectares out of 372,645 hectares have been cultivated, while Koshi has managed 170,790 hectares out of 276,386 hectares (61.79 percent).
Lumbini Province performed better, with 266,369 hectares cultivated out of 302,939 hectares (87.93 percent). Sudurpaschim, Karnali, Gandaki, and Bagmati provinces have reached 96.99 percent, 87.93 percent, 79.29 percent, and 87.19 percent respectively.
Why is Madhesh drying up?
According to water resources expert Govinda Sharma, the groundwater table in the Bhabar region—between the Chure hills and the Terai plain—has significantly declined. Uncontrolled deforestation, encroachment, and illegal mining have led to a crisis in groundwater recharge, reducing the effectiveness of tube wells and deep borings.
Moreover, the lower Indian plains, which lie south of Nepal, have thousands of deep tube wells that draw groundwater from Nepal’s higher elevations, exacerbating water scarcity in Madhesh.
The Bhabar zone, a narrow strip 8 to 10 miles wide, covers only 4.5 percent of Nepal’s land but plays a vital role in water recharge.
Dr Ujjwal Kushwaha from NARC said the drought in Madhesh is a result of long-term ecological degradation of Chure and changing monsoon patterns, driven by climate change.
He noted that 10 years ago, monsoon rains would begin in June (Asar), enabling timely rice transplantation. Now, rainfall is delayed until late July, disrupting traditional farming schedules.
Illegal logging and unchecked sand and gravel extraction in the Chure hills have destroyed the water recharge system. Even in areas with recent rainfall, the water cannot percolate to recharge underground aquifers, rendering tube wells ineffective.
Unless Nepal implements immediate, short-term, and long-term water management and climate adaptation strategies, such crises will intensify in the coming years, Dr. Kushwaha warned.
What does research say?
A study by NARC highlighted the impact of climate change on Nepal’s farming systems. It found that rising temperatures directly reduce rice productivity. A 2°C increase in maximum temperature and a 1°C rise in minimum temperature might initially help, but beyond that, rice yields drop sharply.
Similarly, a study by the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) concluded that a 1°C increase in maximum temperature in the Terai region could reduce per-hectare rice production by 9 percent. The past 25 years have seen both rising temperatures and reduced rainfall, affecting not just rice but also wheat, which now must be cultivated within shorter windows.
What kind of rice should be grown in drought?
Dr Kushwaha recommends cultivating drought-tolerant rice varieties that mature quickly and require minimal water.
Nepal has several such varieties, including Hardinath 1, 3, 4; Chaite 5; and Black Rice 1. Hardinath varieties mature in 110–115 days, Chaite 5 in 120–125 days, and Black Rice 1 in 90–100 days. While Chaite 5 is a fine variety, the others are highly nutritious coarse rice types.
He also suggested using broadcast seeding methods with varieties like Hardinath 6 and Sabitri, and growing traditional upland rice like Ghaiya. In areas with extreme water shortages, millet farming is a practical alternative, providing farmers with income to buy rice if needed.
What is the government doing?
In response to the worsening drought, the Madhesh provincial government declared the region drought-affected on Asar 26 (early July). The federal cabinet followed suit, and on Shrawan 7 (late July), it declared the entire Madhesh Province a disaster-hit zone under Section 32 of the Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Act. The Ministry of Home Affairs officially published the notice in the Nepal Gazette on 24 July.
With rivers and ponds drying up and underground water sources depleted, the declaration aims to prioritize relief. However, critics argue that the government has failed to implement meaningful relief measures.
Beyond sending federal study teams to the area, the Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock Development has taken no significant action. Meanwhile, key ministers and secretaries are attending overseas programs, drawing widespread criticism for their absence during a crisis.
What are farmers saying?
In Dhanusha’s Lakshminiya rural municipality, farmer Bahadur Kawadi said his rice seeds have dried up due to lack of rain. “By this time, we used to be done transplanting, but now the seeds are ruined,” he said. Even those with pump sets are struggling as the water dries up quickly in intense heat.
Another farmer, Bindeshwar Ravidas, said even his pump no longer brings water. Although the Kamala Irrigation Project was supposed to irrigate 25,000 hectares across Dhanusha and Siraha, many pumps under the project are non-functional.
Sharwan Kumar Chaurasia of Loharpatti Municipality, Mahottari, said he managed to transplant rice in dry fields but received no fertilizers or irrigation equipment. He claimed that only those with money and political connections were able to access government-distributed pump sets.
As Madhesh grapples with a worsening water crisis and delayed rice transplantation, it remains to be seen whether government action will match the urgency of the crisis on the ground.
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